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Opinion | With a pandemic stalking the world once more, March 11 will become a fateful day for the history books
- On this day, the market’s longest bull run ended, the US bans travel from continental Europe and a pandemic is declared, exposing the failure of containment and Chinese leadership
- March 2020 will mark the start of a new era, with tectonic changes in the economic, political, diplomatic, social and security spheres
Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
As an international conference speaker, I am often asked: “What keeps you awake at night?” My consistent reply over the years has been: pandemics. History is littered with catastrophic examples.
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In a recent speech to private investors about the coronavirus, I warned them not to underestimate the virus’ ability to spread havoc in global markets. It could be far worse than anything anticipated. The potential for extensive, long-term damage is not limited to global supply chains, but also includes business and consumer confidence, with a global recession on the horizon.
The most alarming factor in recent times is the high level of complacency by public and private leaders about the risks of Covid-19. Despite doubts engendered by the low fatality rate, the bottom line is that Covid-19 has killed about 5,000 people and infected more than 130,000. Deep concern is warranted and effective action indispensable.
March 2020 – and specifically March 11 – may mark the start of a new era. Firstly, on March 11, the market’s longest bull run in history ended, after almost exactly 11 years. According to economists, the Dow Jones average has officially entered bear market territory.
As the virus spreads, and global markets, trade contracts and international travel become more restricted, the forecast looks fairly dire for the immediate future, and potentially beyond. The Russia-Saudi Arabia oil spat that resulted in a historic drop in the oil prices further complicates the global forecast.
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