Could a global coronavirus pandemic trigger an economic depression, forcing us to reckon with the downside of globalisation?

The world experienced three global pandemics in the 20th century, in 1918, 1957 and 1968. All were the result of influenza, two of which originated in Asia. The deadliest was the 1918 flu, during which up to 100 million people are believed to have died, most of them in just four months.

Of course, that was before mass air travel, through which a deadly virus can travel from one corner of the globe to another in just 24 hours. That was also before the modern era of globalisation, in which supply chains and consumers are intimately linked to one another across the world.

The world’s populations and economies are now completely interdependent as a result of cross-border flows of goods and services, investments, technology, information and people. With the global pandemic of Covid-19 possibly upon us, we must reckon with the interconnectivity we have so willingly embraced over the past several decades.

In one sense, China is unique in terms of the impact the virus has already had on its economy and that of the rest of the world, since so many countries have made China their manufacturing centre.

In the less than two months since the eruption of Covid-19 became known outside China, the virus has not only decimated the Chinese economy, but sent shock waves around the world – from transport-related businesses and natural resource producers to manufacturers and the food industry.

From the smallest villages to the largest cities, China’s people are in lockdown and its economy is in free fall – transforming a manufacturing goliath into a whisper of its former self in just two months. Imagine what impact this virus will have if the lockdown lasts for the rest of this year.