Daniel Wagner

Opinion | As the US wakes up to China’s ambition, expect an epic arms race – even if neither wants war

The power struggle is on as America and China enter a competitive relationship the likes of which the world has never seen, with military spending the centrepiece. Neither side wants war, but the competition will be bruising

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Daniel Wagner

Published: 3:00am, 6 Jan 2020Updated: 8:44pm, 17 Feb 2020

The defining character of the relationship between China and the United States has, for decades, been based on a gradual transition of power. Beijing recognised this early on, but a lot of powerful people in Washington did not realise what was happening until relatively recently.

They had believed that the bilateral relationship was primarily about commerce. Now that it is apparent what the relationship really is about – the slow devolution of power from Washington towards Beijing – it is having a profound impact on how the two nations interact and compete.

As China continues to grow stronger, it will become increasingly less inclined to compromise on issues it views as important to Chinese national interests. In response, Washington may find it increasingly challenging not to overreact.

With American foreign policy adrift over the first two decades of this century, China’s Communist Party realised that it had a strategic opportunity to fill in the gaps the US left behind by virtue of its isolationism, and proceeded to build its own set of alliances to make up for lost time.

China’s leadership seeks to secure the Communist Party’s objectives without jeopardising regional stability or the party’s monopoly on power – both of which remain critical to the country’s economic development.