Michael Tai

Hong Kong’s protests don’t faze Beijing – leaders will play the long game and rebuild the faded city after 2047

Hong Kong’s protests, driven by a false sense of superiority to the mainland, are unlikely to provoke an overreaction from Chinese leaders. Beijing has no reason to fear them spreading, as its people have confidence in the government and optimism in the future

Reading Time:3 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

A construction worker builds a wall outside a compound in Beijing in August 2017. Photo: AFP

Michael Tai

Published: 6:00am, 2 Oct 2019Updated: 6:00am, 2 Oct 2019

Many Hongkongers hold the mainland and its people in contempt. Taking pride in their higher income and association with their former colonial master, they would rather be British than Chinese, even as many of the city's wealthier residents already hold foreign passports. As protests continue into a fourth month, with no end in sight, the question is: what should Beijing do? Probably nothing.

With a deep sense of history, Chinese leaders play the long game and know not to be provoked. Beijing can patiently wait until the young protesters see that Hong Kong's future rests with the mainland and not the other way round. Beijing is committed to “one country, two systems” but Hong Kong, with a population of 7.4 million people, is just another second-tier Chinese city with diminishing stature.

While it once served as the gateway for trade and investments into China, that is no longer the case. Outside investors now head straight to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and even second- and third-tier cities such as Dalian, Suzhou or Zhuhai. Whereas in 1993, Hong Kong accounted for 27 per cent of China's GDP, today it represents only 2.7 per cent, falling behind its neighbour Shenzhen, a fishing village not so long ago.

Hong Kong's economy depends to a large degree on property speculation and its role as a tax haven. Flats are tiny and real estate prices astronomical because 76 per cent of the territory's land remains undeveloped, and only 7 per cent is used for residential purposes.

The city also serves as a money-laundering hub for corporate profits, the drug trade, human trafficking and corruption. According to a 2014 poll by PwC, formerly PricewaterhouseCoopers, Hong Kong had the highest reported rate of money laundering in Asia and higher than in many parts of the world. If protesters were to burn the city to the ground, Beijing could afford to leave it lying in ashes and rebuild it after 2047.