Letters | Hong Kong must tread carefully to avoid artificial islands project turning into white elephant

Readers discuss the importance of taking the worst-case scenario into account when planning infrastructure, and the menace of junk calls

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The sea facing Kau Yi Chau is shrouded in mist, on February 10. The Hong Kong government is planning massive reclamation around the island. Photo: Jelly Tse

Published: 2:30pm, 27 Sep 2023

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The controversy surrounding the viability of the government’s proposal for artificial islands is based on real concerns over the financial burden and environmental impact of the project. Instead of allaying the doubts raised by specialists in the field through meaningful analysis, the government seems to be trying to persuade the community through a public advertisement campaign.

The Hong Kong government does not have a good track record of completing on time and within budget mega infrastructural projects that have brought economic benefits to the city. In fact, a few notable ones, such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the Kai Tak Cruise Terminal, can be termed white elephants that wasted precious public resources which could have otherwise been used for much needed public services.

The West Kowloon Cultural District is still not complete a decade after construction began. This hardly instils public confidence.

The government seems to analyse the viability of a project based on the best-case scenario. That was fine when the economy and population growth were on a big upward swing, as they were in the pre-handover era. With the slowdown in both the economy and population growth as a result of the political and economic situation worldwide, it is of paramount importance to use a baseline to draw up a scenario based on the worst case.

This is no different than banks conducting a stress test before granting a mortgage loan. The time period for completing the artificial islands project stretches to 20 years, making any crystal ball forecast on a hunch useless. A good example is the recent slump in the property market, which comes just a few years after the astronomical bid for a prime commercial site by Henderson Land at about HK$50,000 per square foot.