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Opinion | The trade war could well end in November, with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping calling a truce
- Deng Yuwen says signs are pointing to the US-China trade war ending in November
- Donald Trump has made an overture to Xi Jinping, and the Chinese have hinted at the possibility of making concessions to the Americans
Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
Since the start of the US-China trade war, the situation has been on an expected downward trajectory. Since US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining US$267 billion of Chinese goods, markets have worried about the decoupling of the two economies.
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But I’m making a bold prediction that the trade war will end before the end of the year, and signs are already pointing to this.
Be it in theory or history, there is no question that trade wars are detrimental to both sides. Rather, it’s a question of how detrimental. The Chinese have called the battle the “largest trade war in economic history”, and it is impossible that it has hurt China but made no impact on the US.
Watch: Jack Ma says US will ‘suffer more’ in trade war
According to China’s trade data for the first three quarters and UNCTAD investment data for the first half of the year, the trade war has yet to achieve the US’ aims of improving the trade deficit and attracting foreign investment. China’s goods trade grew by 9.9 per cent to 22.28 trillion yuan (US$3.2 trillion) in the first nine months. Its exports rose 6.5 per cent, and its trade surplus was 1.44 trillion yuan.
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