Is reform dead in China? Trump’s trade war may be breathing life back into the cause

Deng Yuwen says China’s economic reforms have stagnated as Beijing does not have the will to wade into political reform and further marketise the economy. However, the trade war with the US might give China the push it needs to change things

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Published: 7:45am, 2 Oct 2018Updated: 3:57pm, 8 Nov 2018

As China marks the 40th anniversary of its reforms, Beijing has already announced that it will hold a grand commemoration at the end of the year, and officials have recently cranked up the propaganda about reforms. But besides paying tribute to the glory of past reforms, will Beijing announce a new round of changes and return to the path of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms? That’s unclear to the outside world.

Meanwhile, most people in civil society, and even inside the system, are pessimistic about reforms. More than 10 years ago, when some liberal intellectuals chanted the slogan “Reform is dead”, society might not have agreed; now, this has basically become the social consensus.

Against this background, a recent seminar held by an influential Chinese think tank, the China Economists 50 Forum, has ignited public expectations that China will restart its reforms. This is due to the attendance of Liu He, who is President Xi Jinping’s chief economic adviser, the maker of China’s economic policies, and vice-premier.

The China Economists 50 Forum is an academic organisation with the mission of advancing China’s reforms. Its members basically include China’s top economics scholars, as well as retired and incumbent senior officials who are also academics – Liu is one of them.