Opinion | As the South China Sea dispute heats up, China must not belittle Duterte’s hand of friendship

One of the more successful regional relationships that China has pursued in the past few years is with the Philippines. Before Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was elected in May 2016, he had for several months been the front runner in the contest and concerns had been expressed among Filipinos that Duterte’s established style – he was known as a mercurial character, similar to US President Donald Trump – might lead to confrontation, particularly with China. 

At the time, the Permanent Court of Arbitration was considering a case brought by the Philippines under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) questioning the legality of China’s “nine-dash line” claim to sovereignty in the South China Sea. China refused to participate in the process. In July 2016, with Duterte already elected president, the court ruled in favour of the Philippines, a judgment that Beijing declared invalid.

Duterte, however, adopted a wholly conciliatory approach. He said he had no intention of acting on the judgment and announced the desire to align the Philippines internationally with China and Russia, despite the existence of a long-standing treaty of friendship with the United States.

This was something of an exaggeration, but it highlighted an intention to steer a neutral course on territorial issues in the South China Sea. For the first 2½ years of Duterte’s presidency, peace has reigned, and a number of cooperative ventures have been mooted under China’s Belt and Road Initiative.