Don’t overhype Singapore: the Trump administration should see North Korea negotiations as a process, not a peak

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is visiting Pyongyang this week, and talks are going on in the US, Singapore and Korea – all signs that the “cancelled” US-North Korea summit could be back on track for June 12 or later. The “on-off” uncertainty surrounding the Singapore session, which reflects the mercurial nature of Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, is as unsurprising as it is potentially embarrassing for the White House, which would benefit from taking a new approach to the summit.

As this latest episode underlines, while Trump has shown himself sometimes to be an effective – if unorthodox – political campaigner, it is still genuinely unclear what governing competence he will ultimately demonstrate as the first president since Dwight Eisenhower never before to have held elected office. Despite his claims of being a master deal-maker, last week showed how different the political domain can be to that of running a privately held family conglomerate, and underlined his unusual diplomatic style, and continuing political and policy inexperience some 18 months into office.

Despite last week’s cancellation, there are some signs the session could be on again. On Saturday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in made a surprise trip to see Kim; on Tuesday Kim Young-chol, the North Korean vice-chairman, arrived in New York to see US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; and on Thursday Lavrov is meeting Kim.

Yet, even if the summit now goes ahead in June, or at a later date, a significant potential expectations gap has emerged over what can be achieved in Singapore, and a different approach would be likely to yield a better outcome. Unless behind-the-scenes negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang are much further advanced than is widely reported, it is likely that the summit can be a good start, but not the end, of a sustained strategic dialogue between Trump and Kim.