US-China trade war offers Beijing a historic opportunity to forge a new global order

Tian Feilong says the trade stand-off with the US is a test of China’s capabilities. It is a hurdle it must overcome to realise its goal of national rejuvenation and its vision of a ‘community of common destiny’

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China can take the opportunity to overhaul domestic industries, enhance economic cooperation through its belt and road plan, and accelerate the formation of a new global economic order. Illustration: Timothy Mcevenue. timothymcevenue.net

Published: 1:07pm, 13 Apr 2018Updated: 7:41pm, 13 Apr 2018

A trade war between the United States and China is brewing, and any outbreak will have a major impact on the global political and economic order.

This is not the first time the US has had to face down challenges from the so-called “second world” economies. Some 30 years ago, it used similar tactics against the Soviet Union, and also Japan, with some success. But if the US is expecting a similar result with its salvo against China, it is likely to be disappointed.

The backdrop to the trade row is China’s rise and the threat it is posing to US global leadership. The two countries are caught in a Thucydides Trap, which warns of the hostilities that may come when an established power is confronted by a rising one.

After 40 years of Chinese reforms, the West has finally realised that there will be no systemic change in China towards a Western democratic model. In fact, in the wake of President Xi Jinping’s report at the 19th Communist Party congress last October and the amendments to the Chinese constitution made last month, the West can see even more clearly how China is taking charge of its own development and the threat that this poses. The grand rhetoric and determined tone of the reports presented at these meetings have opened Western eyes to a vision of China’s development in the next three decades, and of the strategic consequences it may suffer if it fails to contain China’s rise.