Xi Jinping should know that China’s rejuvenation must be peaceful, or it won’t happen at all

Andrei Lungu says that China’s president will have to use his considerable powers and influence over the Communist Party to seek diplomatic solutions and compromises in times of crisis, because armed confrontation could derail his grand plans

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If China wants a national rejuvenation, it will need to focus on how to expand its influence through diplomatic and peaceful means, while avoiding any military confrontation. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 4:45pm, 3 Apr 2018Updated: 7:32pm, 3 Apr 2018

Now that China has done away with presidential term limits, Xi Jinping can retain all his current titles and power long into the future. Most commentary defending the move argues that Xi is consolidating power to push through difficult reforms and strengthen China, and that he wants to remain in charge beyond 2022 to preside over China’s emergence as a global superpower, achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

That Xi cares about achieving this great rejuvenation is pretty clear. Yet this goal implies not only China’s economic transformation into a developed country, but also its change into a superpower with global influence, admired and respected around the world.

If this is truly Xi’s ultimate goal, then there is something important that both the outside world and Xi himself need to understand: the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will either have to be peaceful or it probably won’t happen at all.

Over the next 20 years, as China’s power and influence grow, tensions between Beijing and the US, along with other regional powers, will inevitably emerge. This is already happening, whether in the South China Sea or at the Sino-Indian border. Even a limited war might have profound consequences for China’s rise, because it could throw its economy into recession or catalyse the formation of an anti-China alliance of Asia-Pacific states, from Japan to Australia to India. This would sabotage both China’s economic and strategic goals.

Asia-Pacific countries have already become fearful of China’s growing military might, but its economic pull has proved stronger for the time being.

Asian leaders can also comfort themselves with the thought that China hasn’t fought a war in almost 40 years, and official Chinese rhetoric at least talks about peaceful settlement of disputes. But if China’s military were to show its teeth, it would become clear that a peaceful rise is just a dream and any country in the region could become the next target.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi review an honour guard before their meeting at Abe's official residence in Tokyo in November 2016. Since last fall, the prospect of an Indo-Pacific alliance featuring India and Japan, plus Australia and the United States, to contain China has been discussed. Photo: AFP

Current economic priorities would give way to the imperatives of defending national security. China’s neighbours would rush into the arms of the United States and band together to resist China’s expanding influence. Inevitably, they would also start reducing their economic and commercial ties to China, hurting the Chinese economy. US allies worldwide, including the European Union, would follow this trend.