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Does North Korea’s Olympic overture prelude talks with the US?
David Zweig says North Korea’s leadership played a smart move before the Olympics, exposing rifts among and within the US, South Korean and Chinese governments. As a result, chances of dialogue with the US have increased
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In the view of President Donald Trump, Kim Jong-un is “a pretty smart guy”. In April 2017, Trump said: “At a very young age, he was able to assume power. A lot of people, I’m sure, tried to take that power away, whether it was his uncle or anybody else. And he was able to do it. So obviously, he’s a pretty smart cookie.”
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So Trump should not have been surprised when Kim, after a year of sabre-rattling, carried out an “Olympic overture” by asking to attend the Pyeongchang Olympics in South Korea. In one move, Kim shifted the short-term dynamic from a focus on the North as villain to the North as a long-lost friend.
South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in worried Kim would disrupt the Olympics, a receding possibility with the current negotiations about the North’s participation. In fact, Moon is so thrilled that the two sides have begun detailed discussions about the North’s participation that he is granting the North special permission to submit a late application for several of its athletes, and will publicly demand that the North put its nuclear arsenal on the table as the quid pro quo for attending the games (but privately acquiesce to its refusal).
Kim’s Olympic overture has intensified the US-South Korea divide, encouraging the dovish Moon to push the United States to put their joint military exercises on hold. These drills are highly provocative to the North, who see them as preparation for an invasion. Putting them on hold, even temporarily, is an important concession to Kim Jong-un.
Kim’s Olympic overture helps Moon, who faces great scepticism in the South about his policy towards the North. Hardliners will say they have seen all this before; every “soft-liner” who takes the reins of the South Korean presidency believes he can bring peace to the Korean peninsula. But such efforts have failed time and again. In fact, the Olympic overture reinforces the position that the sanctions were biting the North right where it hurts – otherwise, why did Kim offer to go south?
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