Why the US is no match for China in Asia, and Trump should have stayed at home and played golf

Hugh White says Asia hands in Washington continue to underestimate the seriousness of the challenge from China, and are mistaken if they think any country in the region wishes to jeopardise ties with Beijing on the back of American promises

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The problems with America’s position in Asia go much deeper than Donald Trump, and are exemplified by the “Woody Allen Doctrine”, that is, the belief that “Eighty per cent of success in life is just showing up”. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 5:28pm, 15 Nov 2017Updated: 7:10pm, 15 Nov 2017

You could call it the “Woody Allen Doctrine”. For years, Washington’s formidable band of Asia experts have persuaded US presidents to spend precious days, and endure gruelling transpacific flights, to attend Asia’s annual round of summits with their silly shirts and anodyne communiqués, by quoting the comedian’s most famous line: Eighty per cent of success in life is just showing up.

It is an appealing idea. Simply by attending these meetings, the experts have argued, the president can convince both allies and rivals of America that it is fully committed to Asia, steadfast in the support of its allies and determined to remain the region’s leading power. It doesn’t matter what the president says or does. Just being there is enough to remind the region who is boss.

Well, Donald Trump has disproved all that. His trip to Asia was not enough to prop up US regional leadership. On the contrary, America’s position in Asia would be stronger today if he had stayed at home playing golf on his own courses, rather than undertaken the 12-day trip which ended this week.

Trump skips East Asia Summit on last day of five-nation trip, sends Tillerson instead

Much of the blame for that lies with Trump himself, and the coterie of economic nationalists who crafted his message on trade. That message starkly repudiated the commitment to free trade which has been the bedrock both of Asia’s remarkable economic achievement and of America’s central role in it. Trump’s visit to Asia dealt America out of the region’s economic future.

Trump must also take the blame for the cringingly fawning way he conducted himself in Beijing, the intemperate tweets about North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, and the curious boastful flippancy with which he offered himself as a mediator in the South China Sea disputes.

The trip confirmed that Trump is simply incapable of representing America and its interests effectively on the world stage. Memo to the White House: keep Trump at home.

The problems with America’s position in Asia go much deeper than Trump

But it is not all Trump’s fault. We miss the deeper significance of what we have seen over the past couple of weeks if we focus solely on his poor salesmanship. The problems with America’s position in Asia go much deeper than Trump.

These deeper problems are exemplified by the Woody Allen Doctrine. The fact that generations of Asia experts in the White House, the State Department and the think tanks have, even half in jest, suggested that America just needs to keep turning up to summit meetings in Asia shows how grievously they have underestimated – and still do – the seriousness of the challenge from China. They are also exemplified in the ideas and proposals which Washington’s Asia hands had hoped and intended the president would use during his visit.