China growth model shows Xi Jinping’s vision will outshine that of Deng Xiaoping, and the world can profit

William Zheng says President Xi Jinping’s plans for a modern socialist China by 2035 are more detailed and ambitious. But a debt-ridden economy needs new growth engines like technology and innovation, which is where businesses may find new opportunities

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Xi Jinping meets locals during an inspection tour of Shenzhen in December 2012, shortly after taking over as general secretary of the Communist Party. The move was interpreted as a tribute to the famous southern tour of Deng Xiaoping in 1992 and a commitment to deepen reform. Xi became president of China the following March. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 12:25pm, 2 Nov 2017Updated: 7:16pm, 2 Nov 2017

The Communist Party’s 19th Congress was watched closely by the whole world. Many commented that the new leadership line-up didn’t include a clear potential heir, raising chances that general secretary Xi Jinping might stay in office beyond 2022.

While gaining insight into the opaque system of Chinese politics is intellectually satisfying, what matters to us overseas would still be its economic development and our opportunities. A further look at China’s growth model would help.

I believe Xi’s vision of China’s renaissance is more ambitious than that of Deng Xiaoping, who orchestrated the open-door policy and kick-started the great reform. In Deng’s “three-step development strategy” of the 1980s, the first step was to double the size of the economy and ensure enough food and clothing for all. That goal was achieved by the end of the ’80s. The second step was to quadruple the economy by the end of the 20th century. That goal was achieved in 1995, five years early.

The third step was to increase per capita gross domestic product to the level of moderately developed countries by the mid-21st century, that is 2050.

Xi has shown great confidence in surpassing Deng’s target. As he proclaimed in his address to the congress: “We should work hard for the next 15 years [to 2035] to ... realise socialist modernisation.”

Echoes of Deng Xiaoping as Xi Jinping heads to Shenzhen on first inspection trip

China plans to be a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020, a “modern socialist country” by 2035 and a powerful one by 2050. That means Xi is confident of achieving Deng’s three-step development goal 15 years ahead of schedule.