A win-win for Catalan separatists as Spanish government forces are vilified

Gwynne Dyer says momentum and sentiment may be on the side of Catalonian independence, but neither the law nor the majority are

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Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont holds a carnation in Sant Julia de Ramis on Sunday during the referendum on independence for Catalonia that was banned by Madrid. Photo: AFP

Gwynne Dyer

Published: 4:30pm, 2 Oct 2017Updated: 7:27pm, 2 Oct 2017

Catalan nationalist leader Carles Puigdemont got most of what he wanted on Sunday: 761 injured by Spanish police.

One or two dead martyrs for Catalan independence would have been better, but even the foreign media coverage bought the story that Spanish police suppressed popular will – so now Puigdemont has an excuse for a unilateral independence declaration.

Puigdemont, president of the Catalan regional government, is no stranger to histrionics. He has compared Catalan separatists’ non-violent campaign to the Spanish civil war of 1936-39 and even Vietnam. That sort of stuff rallies the troops, and a minority really want independence.

Catalonia votes overwhelmingly for independence from Spain, in violent referendum

But today Catalonia is the richest region of Spain. The Catalan language enjoys equal status with Spanish and is used in schools. Regional wealth attracts so many people that 46 per cent of the population speak mostly Spanish, with 37 per cent using mainly Catalan.

Onlookers react to a speech by Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont during a gathering at Plaza Catalunya after voting ended for the banned independence referendum in Barcelona on Sunday. Photo: Reuters

Why do many Catalans want to break away? Historical grievances from the civil war and before; resentment that so many Spanish-speakers immigrated to Catalonia; resentment that they have to share wealth with poorer regions; but mostly Sigmund Freud’s “narcissism of minor differences”.

Catalan separatists, however, face two major obstacles: an independence referendum is illegal under the constitution – and they’d almost certainly lose a proper referendum.

A March poll showed 48.5 per cent opposing independence and 44.3 per cent in favour; by July it was 49.4 per cent against and only 41.1 per cent for it. It’s not easy to disenfranchise those “Spaniards” – mostly born in Catalonia.