Why North Korea’s nuclear test may not be all bad

Deng Yuwen says the recent test, a slap in the face for both China and the US, could have a sobering effect on the two powers, sharpening the choices before them and strengthening their resolve to cooperate for a solution – by military means if necessary

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Kim’s nuclear test has pushed China and the US a step closer towards cooperation. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 5:44pm, 6 Sep 2017Updated: 7:21pm, 6 Sep 2017

North Korea has conducted yet another nuclear test, almost a year after its last one. This sixth test, more powerful than the last, signals Pyongyang’s unstoppable will to become a nuclear power.

The test was both unsurprising and surprising. It was not surprising because we know Pyongyang needed to run more tests to build up its nuclear capacity, so a sixth test would have happened sooner or later. Even so, the timing was a surprise. Harsh UN sanctions are in place, after all , and the international community had expected North Korea to ease off. Even the US thought Pyongyang was demonstrating restraint.

As it turned out, the world was wrong. Notably, moreover, the North launched its test on September 3, just as China was hosting the BRICS summit in Xiamen. No doubt the test was a show of defiance aimed at both China and the US.

But Pyongyang’s gambit may well backfire. Over the past year, since its fifth nuclear test, every test-firing of a missile has brought on a debate about how to rein in the North Korean regime, dividing China and the US. But, with this sixth test, the gap between them will narrow.

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The test directly challenged China’s bottom line. I believe a red line had been drawn: China would not tolerate a sixth test. That is perhaps why, although Chinese intelligence had sounded repeated warnings of an imminent North Korean nuclear test in the past, none of them had materialised – until now. The North Koreans might have been wary of crossing China’s red line.