Empty US threats over North Korea are serving Beijing’s interests
Hugh White says Washington cannot disarm North Korea without risking major war, and empty threats only make America look weak and undermine its Asian alliances. China, its strategical rival, will benefit
When North Korea tested a ballistic missile back in February, the Trump administration threatened military action. They did the same thing when Pyongyang tested again on July 4. But each time, after a few days of rising anxiety, the tough talk evaporated. Washington went back to the same old measures – sanctions and UN Security Council resolutions – which have so plainly failed to stop North Korea’s nuclear and missiles programmes for so long.
That leaves North Korea’s weapons programme intact and steadily growing. Worse, it leaves America’s strategic credibility seriously weakened – and that has implications far beyond the North Korean nuclear issue itself. It erodes the basis of the entire regional order in Asia based on US power, and helps to reinforce China’s challenge to American leadership.
Credibility matters so much because America’s leading position in Asia has depended ultimately on the belief, among allies and potential adversaries alike, that it is both willing and able to defend its interests and fulfil its commitments by force if need be. It is the strength of that belief that has made the actual use of force unnecessary, because no one has doubted what the outcome of a military confrontation would be.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reacts after the test-firing of the intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14, at an undisclosed location on July 4. This marked a watershed moment in Pyongyang’s push to develop a nuclear weapon capable of hitting the mainland United States. Photo: AFP/KCNA via KNS
But those doubts grow every time America threatens military action and then fails to follow through. Allies increasingly fear, and rivals increasingly hope, that Washington will not stand by its commitments in a crisis.
