With US and North Korea each testing the other’s resolve, is the world hurtling towards war? Not quite

Niall Ferguson sees a return of brinkmanship in the latest jousting between the US and North Korea, but though hostilities cannot be ruled out, a war is unlikely

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Remember: brinkmanship is effective only if your adversaries believe that you are more prepared to go over the brink than they are. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 4:45pm, 17 Apr 2017Updated: 5:40pm, 7 Jul 2017

Brinkmanship is back, and the world is back on the brink of war.

In the 1950s, the word came to be associated with John Foster Dulles, US president Dwight Eisenhower’s secretary of state, who defined it as “the ability to get to the verge without getting into the war”. In his words: “If you cannot master it, you inevitably get into a war. If you try to run away from it, if you are scared to go to the brink, you are lost.”

Brinkmanship fell into disrepute after the Berlin and Cuba crises of the early 1960s when, as president John F Kennedy saw it, the US and the Soviet Union came far too close to jumping over the brink into nuclear Armageddon.

Trigger a conflict and be prepared to pay the price, China’s foreign minister warns

Now we have come full circle. One of Eisenhower’s first steps as president was to end the Korean War. More than 60 years have passed and now President Donald Trump has summoned up the spectre of the “second Korean war”.

As we have already seen in Syria and Afghanistan, Trump relishes shows of military strength.

However, his use of American air power has primarily been intended to send a signal to Beijing. “I have great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea,” Trump tweeted last Thursday. “If they are unable to do so, the US, with its allies, will!”

America has deployed the USS Carl Vinson strike group to Korean waters. It includes an aircraft carrier and destroyers equipped with guided missiles.