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Don’t call Brexit a divorce – it will be much, much worse

Niall Ferguson expects an acrimonious, protracted British withdrawal from the EU that will rival the schisms of the past

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People attend a pro-Europe demonstration in Berlin on March 26. Contrary to last year’s theory that Britain would be the first of many dominos to fall out of the EU, the precise opposite is happening. Contemplating Britain’s predicament, continental voters are backing away from full-blown secession from Europe. Photo: AFP
Thank God. Never again will those impossible people on the other side of the Channel be able to interfere in our affairs. Now we can take back control and sit back and watch their union fall apart. Those, of course, were the sentiments of European leaders last Wednesday as they opened the envelope containing Theresa May’s notification of Britain’s intention to withdraw from the European Union.
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Publicly, Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, expressed his regret. Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, called Brexit a “tragedy”. Privately, however, I suspect they both punched the air when the letter from London arrived, just as Boris Johnson did when he inadvertently won last June’s referendum.

Until now, nearly all the debate on Brexit has focused on what it means for the UK. But I begin to think the real significance of Brexit may be what it means for the EU.

Brexit is a huge blow – for the UK, not the EU

“This is my first divorce,” said Tusk on Friday, “and hopefully the last one.” I drew the same analogy back in June, but I think it has outlived its usefulness. Last month, May said she would “prefer not to use the term of divorce from the EU because very often when people get divorced they don’t have a very good relationship afterwards”. I take a different view. We should stop talking about divorce because Brexit will be much more protracted and expensive than the worst imaginable divorce.

“Schism” is in fact le mot juste for Brexit, recalling as it does the great division between Western and Eastern Christianity in 1054, as well as the period between 1378 and 1417 when there were rival popes in Rome and Avignon. The defining characteristic of schisms is that they are drawn-out and bitter – and the more arcane the points at issue (such as when Easter should be celebrated, or the precise wording of the Nicene Creed), the deeper the schism becomes. By comparison with a schism, even the most acrimonious divorce is amicable, because the points at issue are quite simple: custody of young children, shares of property.

Countdown to Brexit: how Britain’s divorce from Europe could play out

President of the European Council Donald Tusk attends a press conference last Friday. On the matter of Brexit, Brussels has the upper hand because it made the rules. Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty was drafted quite deliberately not merely to deter countries from leaving the EU but to make sure that if any tried to do so, the effect would be to discourage others. Photo: Reuters
President of the European Council Donald Tusk attends a press conference last Friday. On the matter of Brexit, Brussels has the upper hand because it made the rules. Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty was drafted quite deliberately not merely to deter countries from leaving the EU but to make sure that if any tried to do so, the effect would be to discourage others. Photo: Reuters
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As Rome was to past schisms, so Brussels is to this one. It has the upper hand because it made the rules. Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty was drafted quite deliberately not merely to deter countries from leaving the EU but to make sure that if any tried to do so, the effect would be to discourage others. Observe how this works.

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