Will Asia disappear from the US radar under Trump?

Derwin Pereira says among the president-elect’s foreign policy priorities, US connections to Asia appear the most tenuous, and a shift away from the region would benefit China

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Derwin Pereira

Published: 12:18pm, 11 Nov 2016Updated: 6:45pm, 11 Nov 2016

There is no structural compulsion for the US to remain engaged in Asia. It can pick and choose – and drop – its partners at will. Illustration: Craig Stephens

The stunning victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the American presidential election threatens Asian countries with strategic abandonment by the United States. Instead, Europe and its relations with Russia could return to the centre of American foreign policy. If that were to be the case, China would benefit most in Asia from the Trump presidency.

Under Trump, the US will accept China’s rise – as long as it doesn’t challenge the status quo

Trump’s desire for strategic rapprochement with Russia formed a core theme of his foreign policy pronouncements during his presidential campaign. Most directly, those touched on Syria, where he would appear to be willing to accept Moscow’s role in supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime against rebels, including the nefarious Islamic State.

More broadly, Trump is sceptical of Nato’s contribution to American security. He displayed his concerns by dropping hints that the US might no longer defend its Nato allies unless they paid their way. European nations looking warily at an increasingly assertive Russia were disheartened by his stance.

A Nato tactical exercise under way at the land forces training centre in Oleszno, Poland, in September. Photo: Reuters

Nato leaders gear up for threats from Russia

However, Europe could rededicate itself to Nato in order to keep the US anchored in the continent. The transatlantic security alliance is a multilateral institution that has stood the test of time since the end of the second world war. It is the most potent diplomatic weapon that the United States possesses in dealing with Russia. Hence, it is inconceivable that even as radical an American leader as Trump would scuttle it, thereby losing the leverage that he would possess against Russia one day – no matter how much he might admire President Vladimir Putin personally today.

Portraits of Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a Moscow bar that was showing a live broadcast of the election results. If Trump scuttles Nato, he would lose leverage against Russia that he could one day use, no matter how much he might admire Putin personally. Photo: AP

Trump, trade and the US pivot to Asia: what lies ahead?

Europe itself will need America more as its own fissures come to the fore. Brexit will mean the departure of a major economic power from the European Union. Elections in Germany and France next year could loosen the union further. The strain of debt relief for Greece would add to the centrifugal forces in Europe. A weakened Europe would turn to the US, with which it has strong historical and cultural links, for a sustainable identity in an uncertain world.

Essentially, therefore, with or without a friendly connection to Russia, American relations with Europe will remain important to the Trump presidency.