Belt and Road offers discontented Hong Kong youth a vista of opportunities

Victor Zheng says young Hongkongers frustrated by the lack of upward mobility here need to see the world to gain a wider perspective, and the new Silk Road is beckoning

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Victor Zheng

Published: 10:01am, 6 Nov 2016Updated: 5:47pm, 6 Nov 2016

We should offer more chances and incentives to young people to let them see the world and broaden their horizons. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Since the Occupy Central movement, emigration has become an important talking point in Hong Kong. Local media have even compared this phenomenon to the “brain drain” in the 1980s and 1990s, triggered by the so-called “confidence crisis”. We want to know if there really is a big wave of emigration from Hong Kong. If so, who are the people who want to leave? And, what implications can we draw from this phenomenon?

A city-wide phone survey was conducted from September 23 to 27 by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. The results showed that about two-fifths of respondents indicated they would like to leave Hong Kong if they had the chance. Since migration is not simply a fleeting thought but is costly, not only for migrants but their family members and society as a whole, such a substantial percentage raises concern.

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However, a follow-up question to those who wished to leave, to see if they had taken any action, had only one-tenth answering “yes”. This means those who have taken solid action to leave Hong Kong represent only 4.2 per cent of all respondents surveyed.

Faced with limited options, their discontent may accumulate, which may turn to persistent social unrest

A further analysis by age, education and level of trust in the local government indicated that younger people (aged 18 to 30) had a higher desire to emigrate than did older people (aged 51 and above). Those with college education or higher showed more desire to leave than people with a lower level of education. Respondents who distrust the government also indicated a higher desire to leave than those who trust it. Also, respondents who gave the chief executive a lower mark have a higher desire to leave Hong Kong.

In the 1980s and 1990s, there was a big brain drain due to a lack of confidence in the future of Hong Kong or strong dissatisfaction with socio-political development. Sociologists Lau Siu-kai and Wan Po-san quoted surveys conducted by professional associations at the time to illustrate that large proportions of professionals were keen to leave Hong Kong. They found 85 per cent of the local members of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors, 80 per cent of the members of the Hong Kong Society of Accountants, and 60 per cent of the members of the Law Society expressed their intention to leave.

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More importantly, for these groups, their high desire to leave turned to solid action. According to demographer Ronald Skeldon, from 1980 to 1992, a total of 450,300 people had applied for an overseas visa (mainly for Canada, Australia and the United States), that is, they had taken action to leave. In other words, since these groups of people were equipped with economic, human and social capital, they chose to leave.