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Rodrigo Duterte
OpinionComment

Playing the US against China may prove a smart move for Rodrigo Duterte

Eduardo Araral and Richard Heydarian say the Philippine leader, who will meet Xi Jinping in a closely watched meeting this week, is right to try to maximise the gains for his country

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Eduardo Araral and Richard Heydarian say the Philippine leader, who will meet Xi Jinping in a closely watched meeting this week, is right to try to maximise the gains for his country
Eduardo AraralandRichard Heydarian
It is a delicate balancing act, which shrewd statesmen such as Duterte can pull off, especially if he appreciates the counsel of his trusted advisers. Illustration: Craig Stephens
It is a delicate balancing act, which shrewd statesmen such as Duterte can pull off, especially if he appreciates the counsel of his trusted advisers. Illustration: Craig Stephens
When Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte meets his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping (習近平) this week, two questions will be on the minds of international observers. First, what sort of geopolitical game is Duterte playing? Second, will he cross the Rubicon over to China, as he has repeatedly threatened to do in recent weeks, and thereby fundamentally alter the geopolitical equation in East Asia?

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The answer to the first question is straightforward. Like everyone else, Duterte wants to maximise the gains for the Philippines in its relationship with China and the US. Most would assume that he is trying to play off the US against China in the hope of getting the best deal. Therefore, the argument goes, his friendliness towards China and his expletive-laden criticism of the US should be seen in this light.

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The answer to the second question – whether Duterte will cross the Rubicon – is more complicated. The short answer is, it depends on how the US and China respond to moves.

If the US does not want to completely lose Duterte to China, how then should it respond to his game? The US should play a game of costly signalling. Drawing valuable lessons from game theory, a signal is costly if the sender will incur certain costs it would have otherwise avoided. Costly signals are necessary to demonstrate one’s sincerity in a relationship. This is what Duterte wants from the US.

Thus, the US should first of all help, rather than merely criticise, Duterte’s war on drugs. After all, Duterte is on a crusade and crusaders don’t back down. Duterte thinks that the US is hypocritical because, although the US has helped Mexico and Colombia wage a bloody war on drugs, it has been nowhere near as proactive in aiding the Philippines’ campaign against illegal drugs. And there is room for cooperation.

Alleged drug users are rounded up after a raid in a shanty community in Manila. America can and should help the Philippines set up rehabilitation centres for the many drug users who have surrendered to the government in the past few months. Photo: AFP
Alleged drug users are rounded up after a raid in a shanty community in Manila. America can and should help the Philippines set up rehabilitation centres for the many drug users who have surrendered to the government in the past few months. Photo: AFP

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For instance, America, and the Western powers in general, can and should help the Philippines set up rehabilitation centres for hundreds of thousands of drugs users, who have surrendered to the government in the past three months. China has already been helping the country in this regard.

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