Why the elections in Taiwan matter so much – for Beijing, the region and the US
Jerome A. Cohen says a win for Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan’s presidential election will be a major test for the mainland leadership and may slow the progress of cross-strait trade agreements
The anticipated turnout for Saturday’s presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan will be relatively modest compared with its great importance in so many respects.
A major question, of course, is whether – if the Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate Tsai Ing-wen wins – her administration can manage a smooth transition to the next stage of Taiwan’s relations with mainland China. Taiwan’s quickly evolving identity has yet to be adequately reflected in cross-strait relations, and it is time for intergovernmental relations to catch up with social progress on the island and its new demands.
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How well Tsai can manage the transition will depend in part on whether the DPP can muster a reliable majority in the legislature, either through a coalition or on its own.
Watch: Presidential front-runner Tsai Ing-wen
A third issue – whether Taiwan can mobilise a more effective government than in the recent past – will depend on the outcome of the legislative election.
Fourth, the election will indicate whether Taiwan politics will continue to benefit from a vigorous two-party system or whether the trend towards the dispersion of political representation among numerous smaller parties will continue, making the political process even more challenging than it already is.
