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Opinion | Come 2015, Chinese leaders must be even bolder in launching key reforms

Hu Shuli says the changes so far are but a first step. With less emphasis on GDP, Beijing should take the chance to push on with development

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Next year, breakthroughs can be expected in reform of state-owned enterprises, among other areas. Photo: Reuters

As the Central Economic Work Conference gets under way this week, much of the public attention will be focused on China's growth target for the coming year. At a time when the Chinese economy is both slowing and experiencing the pain of restructuring, not to mention still coping with the after-effects of the 2008 stimulus measures, Chinese leaders are likely to favour a steady expansion. They are also expected to press on with fundamental reforms while protecting bottom-line growth.

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Protecting the growth floor means protecting jobs, first and foremost. Thanks to economic restructuring and the faster development of the service sector, more jobs have been created with every unit increase of gross domestic product.

By the end of the first three quarters of this year, for example, Chinese cities have already created enough jobs to meet the target set for the year. No longer does job creation depend on a breakneck speed of growth.

Ensuring minimum growth also means safeguarding the economy from systemic risk in the financial sector. These risks are considerable, given the ongoing property market corrections and high government debt. For both these reasons, economic growth must be kept above a minimum.

Many analysts expect the growth target to be set at around 7 per cent.

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At this stage of its development, China ought to review the usefulness of GDP figures. This is not only a technical question, but concerns the transformation of the nation's development model and its governance ethos.

Before the 11th five-year plan, growth targets were more or less set in stone, to be met no matter what. Since then, however, the government has made it clear the number is to be a goal to work towards. In practice, of course, many central and local government officials continue to regard these yearly targets as a command, with some deferring reform or restructuring, ostensibly so the targets can be reached.

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