Japan picks wrong time to test Beijing
Leslie Fong says by buying the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, at a time when a power struggle is straining nerves in China, Tokyo may be unwisely giving Beijing a reason to assert itself
What are the chances of war breaking out between Japan and China over their competing claims of sovereignty over the tiny islands which the former call Senkaku and the latter Diaoyu? This was the question posed by a junior Japanese parliamentarian to a respected political grandee from the pre-war era. They were soaking in a private onsen two hours' drive from Tokyo. The young man had secured the meeting with the sensei - the respectful term used to address very senior figures in Japanese politics - through his grand-uncle.
The old man replied: "Tokyo has already thrown down the gauntlet by rushing to buy the islands from their private owner in the face of strong protests by both Beijing and Taipei. This is really pushing our luck. We may get away with it this last time but any further move which strikes the Chinese as even greater provocation is certain to leave them feeling their backs are to the wall. They will push back - their masses, already not too happy with us Japanese, will demand they push back - and then things will spin out of control.
"So, an all-out war, most probably not. But serious armed clashes, leading to substantial loss of lives, cannot be ruled out."
The young man said: "But, sensei, we were briefed at a party caucus last week that the purchase was to pre-empt Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara and his supporters from creating more trouble. They were talking of holding events on these islands and installing a weather station. Now that will really rile the Chinese, which is why Tokyo has to stop them. Can't the Chinese see that?"
The old man said: "Kato-kun, that's what your party leaders would say. But do you think the Chinese will swallow that?"
"But why not? Surely the Chinese will understand that with an election looming, that's the best Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda can do without getting the right-wing hawks on the warpath."
