Opinion | Missing kindergarten data a sign that the fallout from China’s one-child policy has only just begun

China’s education ministry last week published its yearbook of statistics for the country’s school system, but omitted one small thing: the number of new entrants into kindergartens.

The education data, which is available for the years 2015 to 2020, is used by researchers and economists as a reference for changes in China’s population. The omission in the latest yearbook, therefore, will make China’s real demographics look a bit murkier to outsiders.

The number of new entrants to kindergartens is by no means accurate data in itself, as public kindergartens tend to inflate enrollments when applying for government subsidies.

The figures from 2015 to 2020, however, confirm a worrying picture of the shrinking size of the child population in what has – at least officially – been considered the world’s most populous country. It lends support to an increasingly plausible theory that China is walking into a demographic crisis that would dwarf Japan’s population problems.

As the number of births continues to plunge in China, it’s not hard to imagine that many kindergartens across the country will struggle to find enough kids. The problem would then gradually spread to primary schools, middle schools and eventually universities.

China enrolled about 10 million young people in colleges and universities last year, a number on par with the number of births in the country.