Hong Kong’s Transport Department has its head poked deep into the sand
The department’s last big study on Hong Kong’s transport needs was published in 1999 and based on a population projection that has proved to be wide of the mark. Despite this, there is no word from the department on any revised plans
Hong Kong saw the smallest population growth in nine years amid a surge in emigration and a persistently low birth rate, according to a government report released yesterday.
SCMP, February 14
What I see is an ostrich with its head poked so deep into the sand that it can neither see nor hear this highly unwelcome news. Stencilled across the body of this ostrich are the words Transport Department.
It is hardly an illusion. Ostriches would do well to take lessons from the department on how to ignore disconcerting facts. Our transport planners are past masters at it.
Take, for instance, their last big thoughts on our transports needs, Comprehensive Transport Study 3, published in 1999. I’ve looked and I’ve looked but I have seen no sign anywhere of a CTS4. CTS3 still governs our planning of transport infrastructure. And the key interesting thing about CTS3 is that it was based on a population projection of as many as 10.13 million people living in Hong Kong at the end of 2016.
There was also a low estimate, 8.18 million, but of course it would be imprudent to risk Hong Kong’s future by building transport infrastructure for the needs only of a low population estimate and so it was the high figure that went into the plans.
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Low figure indeed. Our population at the end of 2016 was 7.37 million and the gap between reality and even this low estimate is so wide that, in the demographic business, the CTS3 forecast counts as not even hitting the stands, let alone anywhere near the goal. As for that 10.13 million forecast, don’t burst your sides laughing.
