China must resist calls to liberalise its capital account too much, too soon
José Antonio Ocampo and Kevin Gallagher say experience elsewhere shows prudence is vital
As China's economy starts to slow, following decades of spectacular growth, the government will increasingly be exposed to the siren song of capital-account liberalisation. This option might initially appear attractive, particularly given the Chinese government's desire to internationalise the renminbi. But appearances can deceive.
A new report argues that the Chinese authorities should be sceptical about capital-account liberalisation. Drawing lessons from the recent experiences of other emerging countries, the report concludes that China should adopt a carefully sequenced and cautious approach when exposing its economy to the caprices of global capital flows.
The common thread to be found in the recent history of emerging economies - beginning in Latin America and running through East Asia and Central and Eastern Europe - is that capital flows are strongly pro-cyclical, and are the biggest single cause of financial instability.
Domestic financial instability, associated with liberalisation, also has a large impact on economic performance, as does the lack of control over non-bank financial intermediaries - an issue that China is now starting to face as the shadow banking sector's contribution to credit growth becomes more pronounced.
Most academic research also supports the view that financial and capital-account liberalisation should be undertaken warily, and that it should be accompanied by stronger domestic financial regulation. In the case of capital flows, this means retaining capital-account regulations as an essential tool of macroeconomic policy.
Indeed, during the 1990s, China - and also India - taught the rest of the developing world the importance of gradual liberalisation. It was a lesson that many countries fully learned only in the wake of the economic and financial crises that began in East Asia in 1997, spread to Russia in 1998, and affected most of the emerging world. By maintaining strong capital-account regulation, China avoided the contagion.
Even the International Monetary Fund, in late 2012, adopted a cautious approach. The IMF now recognises that capital-account liberalisation comes with risks as well as benefits, and that "liberalisation needs to be well planned, timed, and sequenced in order to ensure that its benefits outweigh the costs".
