A common question investors are asking about Beijing's recent policy support efforts is "why have they not worked?" The rebound engineered in 2009 is etched in many minds. Economists at UBS point out that policy support today is designed to be just that - support, not stimulus. And that is because many of the policy challenges Beijing faces today have their origins in the actions taken in 2008, including the massive run-up in leverage. "Back then, China's overall and government debt levels were much lower than now, there were a lot more quality projects to invest in and overcapacity issues were not as severe," the UBS team write in a note. Add in that it aggravated excess capacity and deepened structural imbalances and the policy dilemma is clear. "Even though the current government is still trying to do whatever it can to manage the pace of the economy's downturn and associated macro risks, it remains keen not to make the same mistakes again."
