Goldman Sachs says Hong Kong home prices will rebound in 2025 after hitting bottom this year, raises office market concerns
- The US investment bank says the residential sector will see a gradual recovery this year after the US Federal Reserve begins to cut rates and Hong Kong mortgage rates are lowered from the second quarter onwards
- Hong Kong’s office market will continue to ‘face headwinds of slow take-up and rising supply’
The US investment bank said the sector will see a gradual recovery in the latter part of this year, when the US Federal Reserve begins to cut rates and Hong Kong mortgage rates are lowered from the second quarter of 2024 onwards.
For now, the market continues to show weakness, with a slower pace of transactions, as well as weak upgrader and investment demand. Overall, home prices this year will fall another 5 per cent before hitting the bottom, Goldman said in a report released on Friday.
Hong Kong’s home prices, which reported a decline for eight consecutive months through December, have fallen about 23 per cent from August 2021, it said.
Goldman said this softness is still manageable and its view is relatively positive compared with some other forecasts.
“Home prices have continued to fall for 26 consecutive weeks, as indicated by the firm’s price index,” Buggle Lau Ka-fai, chief strategist at Midland Realty, said in a report released on Monday. This highlights the prevailing cautious market sentiment, he added.
