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Electric cars may outsell petrol-fuelled vehicles sooner than expected in 2033, EY’s AI prediction tool says
- EV sales may outpace fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the US, EY says using an AI-assisted prediction tool
- By 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1 per cent of the global car market
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Global electric vehicle (EV) supremacy will arrive by 2033 – five years earlier than previously expected – as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transport, according to a new study.
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Consultant Ernst & Young now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the US – the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1 per cent of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool.
Strict government mandates to combat climate change are driving demand in Europe and China, where automakers and consumers face rising financial penalties for selling and buying traditional petrol and diesel-fuelled cars. EY sees Europe leading the charge to electric, with zero-emission models outselling all other propulsion systems by 2028. That tipping point will arrive in China in 2033 and in the US in 2036, EY predicts.
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The US lags the world’s other leading markets because fuel-economy regulations were eased during President Donald Trump’s administration. Since taking office in January, President Joe Biden has rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and proposed spending US$174 billion to accelerate the shift to EVs, including installing a half-million charging stations across the country.
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“The regulatory environment from the Biden administration we view as a big contributor, because he has ambitious targets,” Randy Miller, EY’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader, said in an interview. “That impact in the Americas will have a supercharging effect.”
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