Chart Book | Chart of the Day: The outlook for Shanghai aluminium

So much sabre-rattling and posturing on the benefits of global trade – yet the price of Shanghai aluminium futures has barely budged recently – and implied volatility is close to its lowest in a decade or so. Volume is good rather than spectacular, suggesting traders and investors see no overriding need to position themselves for the worst. Oversold on the RSI, prices are trying to base one standard deviation below the long-term mean regression. This week they have managed to rally and gap through the 50-day moving average. We expect another rally to the 200-day moving average – currently at 15,130 yuan (US$2,410) per tonne – and then back to the mean regression (currently 16,000 yuan, and rising).

Nicole Elliott is a technical analyst