Climate change: China at risk of missing its goals unless it takes drastic action to rein in coal expansion, new research finds

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China ‘way off track against its target of cutting carbon intensity by 18 per cent between 2021 and 2025,’ says Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

Approaching deadline for peak emissions by 2030 has led many developers to pursue carbon-intensive projects while the window is still open, says report

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The Wujing Power Station in Shanghai. Last year, the Chinese energy sector’s carbon dioxide emissions increased 5.2 per cent, highlighting a failure to rein in energy-intensive growth, the report said. Photo: Bloomberg

Eric Ng

Published: 8:00am, 22 Feb 2024Updated: 8:02am, 22 Feb 2024

China is at heightened risk of missing its climate targets and suffering major economic losses unless it takes decisive actions to put a halt to runaway coal power plant expansion and reform outdated power grid management, new research has found.

To fix challenges posed by an unchecked boom in construction of coal power plants initiated in the name of preventing periodic power shortages, Beijing must scrap policies that support coal power generation, according to climate analysts.

Last year, the Chinese energy sector’s carbon dioxide emissions increased 5.2 per cent, the same as gross domestic product, highlighting a failure to rein in energy-intensive growth, they estimated.

“Another year of rapidly rising emissions in 2023 leaves China way off track against its target of cutting carbon intensity by 18 per cent between 2021 and 2025,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). “As a result, carbon dioxide emissions would now need to fall by 4 to 6 per cent by 2025 to hit the goal.”

The approaching deadline for achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 appeared to have led many developers to pursue a wave of carbon-intensive projects while the window is still open, said a joint report by CREA and Global Energy Monitor published on Thursday.

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The surprising hurdle slowing China’s switch to green energy

In April 2021, President Xi Jinping said China would “strictly control” coal-fired power generation projects, reach peak consumption next year and start phasing it down in 2026, as part of the nation’s goals for carbon emissions to peak before 2030 and to reach net-zero by 2060.