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Morgan Stanley says ‘underappreciated’ Chinese consumer stocks to reverse industry-beating decline amid job market improvement

  • US investment bank anticipates ‘improvement in mass demand in the second half’
  • Current bearish view on consumer stocks is due to an uneven pace of recovery, lender says in report

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A bakery at a shopping mall in Beijing. Key to Morgan Stanley’s call are the about 20 million jobs that will be added to the contact-based services industry in the following four to five quarters. Photo: AP
Zhang Shidongin Shanghai

Morgan Stanley has recommended adding exposure to Chinese consumer stocks, the worst-performing sector this year, as an improvement in the country’s jobs market is set to boost household incomes and unwind excess savings to further buoy consumption.

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Key to the call are the about 20 million jobs that will be added to the contact-based services industry in the following four to five quarters, driving momentum in consumption recovery among the middle class and mass market, analysts at the US investment bank including Lillian Lou and Jonathan Garner said in a report on Sunday.

Their top stock picks include Macau gaming operators Sands China and MGM China Holdings, Chinese hotpot restaurant Haidilao International Holding, sportswear brand Anta Sports Products and liquor distiller Kweichow Moutai.

“We anticipate an improvement in mass demand in the second half, which would still benefit travel and the experience-related and incrementally basic staples categories,” the report said. “Domestic consumer stocks, in particular, have a larger exposure in these categories and tend to be underappreciated currently.”

Once a favourite bet, Chinese consumer stocks have been losing their lustre this year, as investors are increasingly wary that a mild recovery in China’s economy will not translate into the so-called vengeance consumption seen in many western countries after the reopening of their economies. Gauges of mainland China-listed consumer staples and discretionary stocks have fallen by more than 7 per cent in 2023 for the worst performance among all industry groups.
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