Will Trump’s return ignite another super rally in China’s stock market? Analysts weigh in
Trump’s presidency is often associated with trade war and tariffs, while huge stock returns are overlooked
Should global investors in Chinese stocks be worried about his second presidency? History suggests such concerns are misplaced.
The MSCI China Index, which tracks 700-odd Chinese stocks traded at home and abroad, returned 98.4 per cent in US dollar terms during his first presidency (January 2017-2021), while the Hang Seng Index jumped 31 per cent and the CSI 300 gauge of onshore stocks advanced 73.6 per cent.
Here are some takeaways on the outlook for Chinese stocks by some global fund managers and investment banks.
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Donald Trump secures enough Electoral College votes to win 2024 US presidential election
BCA Research: Will the prospect of expanding trade tensions lead to more Chinese stimulus, and create an opportunity for Chinese equities? Not necessarily. The Trump victory is not a surprise and China’s stimulus plan was designed with this scenario in mind.
While a large stimulus is coming, it is unlikely to create a meaningful recovery on a six- to nine-month horizon. Moreover, US and China will reach a trade deal, but getting there will generate volatility. For the US to get its desired deal, “it needs to threaten credible pain”, the Montreal-based firm said in a report on Thursday.
