Hong Kong home prices: up or down? Experts weigh in with their forecasts for 2025

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Analysts forecast up to 5 per cent price fall or rise amid oversupply, falling interest rates and improving stock market performance

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CK Asset’s mass residential project in Kwun Tong. Some 87,000 new flats in Hong Kong are estimated to be ready by the end of next year, according to JLL. Photo: Nora Tam

Cheryl Arcibal

Published: 8:30am, 12 Dec 2024

The outlook for Hong Kong’s residential market is divided among analysts, with one consultancy forecasting prices to fall amid oversupply concerns, while two others expect prices to rise because of falling interest rates and improved stock market performance.

Property consultancy JLL expects home prices to fall by up to 5 per cent, even as rivals Knight Frank and Cushman & Wakefield see gains of as much as 5 per cent.

JLL cited an estimated supply of 87,000 new flats, equivalent to 58 months of demand, by the end of 2025 as the main reason for its pessimism.

“In 2025, the primary challenge in the housing market is oversupply,” said Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL in Hong Kong. “However, we must also consider the risks posed by the escalating US-China trade war and an uncertain interest rate outlook, which could impact the housing market.”

Hong Kong’s lived-in home prices rose for the first time in seven months in October. Photo: Eugene Lee

That supply is still higher than the average 51.3 months worth of new supply of flats from 2015 to 2021, when home prices broke one record after another, JLL said. The city’s lived-in home prices peaked in September 2021. Since 2022, the supply of new flats ranged between 78.2 and 101.6 months’ worth of demand, the consultancy added.

Hong Kong’s home prices rose for the first time in seven months in October, with a widely watched index gaining 0.62 per cent month on month. Meanwhile, home sales rose by more than a third in November to 6,298 units, the most since 8,551 in April and the second-highest for the year, according to official data. The value of these deals increased by 54 per cent to HK$57.3 billion (US$7.4 billion) from HK$37.3 billion in October.