Electric cars: China must put even more EVs on the roads at a faster rate to meet nation’s 2060 carbon neutral target, Greenpeace says

Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) must make up 63 per cent of total automobile sales by 2030, rising to 87 per cent by 2035 in China, Greenpeace says

Vehicle emissions may peak at 1.75 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2027, with the reduction reaching a plateau of 1 per cent between 2027 and 2029, Greenpeace says

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Aerial photo of newly-produced cars covered in snow at the factory of BMW-Brilliance in Shenyang in northeastern China’s Liaoning province on November 17, 2021. Photo: AFP

Published: 2:00pm, 18 Jan 2022Updated: 3:29pm, 18 Jan 2022

Manufacturers and policymakers in China must work together to put even more zero-emission vehicles on the roads of the world’s largest vehicle market to meet the nation’s carbon neutrality target by 2060, Greenpeace said.

Zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) will have to make up 63 per cent of total automobile sales by 2030, rising up to 87 per cent by 2035, for China to get on the path for meeting the 20 per cent emissions-cut target in 2035, according to research published by the environmental advocacy group on Tuesday.

“Cutting emissions is cumulative; the longer you wait, the more impossible it becomes,” said Bao Hang, a project leader in Greenpeace East Asia’s Beijing office.

The findings, which cannot be immediately corroborated, underscore the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in the world’s fastest growing market for so-called new energy vehicles (NEVs), where three of every five new cars entering China’s roads are expected to be powered by electricity by 2030, according to a UBS forecast. Sales of NEVs made up a record 14.8 per cent of total sales last year in China, as generous subsidies and a steady flow of new models lured drivers to ditch their petrol-guzzling cars for fully electric models.

That replacement rate is not happening fast enough, according to Greenpeace. Vehicle emissions are expected to peak at 1.75 billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2027, with the reduction reaching a plateau of 1 per cent between 2027 and 2029, only falling by 11 per cent from the peak in 2035. That would require extreme policies later to attain carbon neutrality by 2060.

“The premise of net zero commitments is an early peak and a long downhill, not a plateau and a cliff,” Bao said.