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Chan Young Bang
Chan Young Bang, PhD is the founder and president of KIMEP University, principal investigator at its DPRK Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first president of Kazakhstan. His current research focuses on nuclear non-proliferation and the economic development of the DPRK (North Korea). He is the author of more than 60 articles and several books on prospects for achieving peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula. His latest book, A Korean Peninsula Free of Nuclear Weapons: Perspectives on Socioeconomic Development, was published in December 2023.
The weakening of the Russia-North Korea alliance, political change in South Korea and Trump’s return create a conducive environment for denuclearisation talks.
The pact is a result of geopolitical polarisation amid tensions from Ukraine, North Korea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan issue. If China can signal peace, or even broker it, the 21st century will belong to China.
He will have to give up nuclear weapons and the current Juche ideology – political reform must precede economic ones. And world powers must offer security guarantees, and support and compensation for denuclearisation.
With economic prosperity on a Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons and US troops, Xi Jinping would secure his legacy as a top statesman and China’s peaceful rise as a world power.
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Three events have precipitated the crisis: UN sanctions, Kim’s harsh Covid-19 controls and his failed bid to court Russia and China in a defiant nuclear push. The only remaining means of preserving state integrity is the use of terror and repression.
The US’ past attempts to denuclearise the peninsula have been too dependent on ‘sticks’ and a resolution is not the matter of life and death it is to South Korea. Yoon must offer Kim a deal which has China’s support and that offers the regime a better chance of survival without nuclear weapons.
Such an alliance is not the key to North Korea’s survival, when its threats and crises are internal. Crucially, both Russia and China are opposed to its nuclear tests. And China will never join such a disadvantageous alliance.
China could insist on the pre-war status quo or embrace a trilateral alliance with Moscow, but either option would hurt its strategic aims, including the one-China policy. Or it could make Pyongyang an irresistible offer.
Kim could maintain the status quo, or trade nuclear arms for the lifting of sanctions and security guarantees while maintaining totalitarian rule. His only realistic choice is to deliver a bright future by agreeing to open up the economy.
Biden must cooperate with other six-party talk members to craft a deal that speaks to the cost-benefit calculation of economic development in exchange for denuclearisation.
While Kim has a vision for his country’s future, the lack of an exit strategy from his nuclear programme has thwarted peace talks. Embracing denuclearisation in exchange for security guarantees and development aid will help the economy soar.
Given Chinese president’s personal history combined with China’s pivotal role in North Korea’s economy, Xi is well placed to convince Kim that economic reform is his best option. A US$300 billion fund, mostly financed by China, could get the ball rolling.
The US has failed to sell a denuclearisation deal to North Korea, so Russia’s president should take up the challenge, starting with setting the conditions for a modernisation fund.
