Tensions have heightened drastically in East Asia over North Korean plans to launch a satellite-laden rocket in the next few days, despite pleas and protests by friend and foe alike.
The launch, described by Pyongyang as a peaceful space project, will be the climax of celebrations for the centenary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il-sung. But the United States, Russia, Japan and South Korea believe it will be a disguised long-range missile test, given the technology's potential dual use.
The planned launch has pointed to a false start in the new reign in Pyongyang, after Kim Jong-un assumed power in a dynastic succession in December.
In stark contrast to a widely expected economic focus, Pyongyang's policy since then has put guns over butter. Despite critical food shortages, the astronomically priced satellite launch will be used to rally domestic support for the new Kim, violating UN Security Council resolutions. It will also breach a February deal with the US, under which North Korea agreed to halt nuclear activities and missile tests in exchange for US food aid.
Apparently, North Korea is now acting more recklessly and becoming more unpredictable. But Pyongyang will never obtain the security or global endorsements it craves through belligerence and provocations, and will only make itself more isolated.
The planned launch will trigger a crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Some Asian airlines are changing flight paths to avoid the proposed launch trajectory. Japan has deployed Pac-3 missiles in Tokyo and Okinawa, as well as Aegis destroyers in surrounding waters, to intercept the North Korean rocket if its territories are threatened. The Russian military will also monitor the rocket's flight.
