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Booby traps

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Why you can trust SCMP

It is fitting that you can form the word 'trap' out of transparency. As the debate about the need for transparency in China's military build-up continues along its fairly predictable path, there is one interesting wrinkle that is often forgotten - that the PLA is trying to become an asymmetric power.

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Through weapons such as cyber-warfare, the as-yet-untested DF-21 'carrier-killer' ballistic missile and its long-term submarine programme, the PLA intends to create an effective deterrent against a much larger potential foe, the United States.

One way to understand asymmetric warfare is to think of guerilla operations or judo - a strategy that constantly keeps a much larger enemy off-balance or even turns its very size and strength into a liability.

A key part of such a strategy is keeping your large opponent guessing. A lack of transparency and/or misinformation, therefore, is vital to the strategy's success. And, therein lies the trap for Beijing as its military modernisation continues apace.

Beijing might be able to continue to rail against Washington's demands for more information on its capabilities and, more importantly, its intentions, warning of America's lingering 'cold war mentality', but that is going to be a harder sell in the region.

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One problem is that some countries see China as the potentially dominant force long term. That means they are fast adopting their own asymmetric strategies in return.

Just look at Vietnam, for example. Through Hanoi's acquisition of state-of-the-art Russian diesel submarines, a range of missiles and fast naval vessels, it appears to be doing to China what China is trying to do to the US - make the prospect of any conflict near its disputed maritime domain prohibitively complex.

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