The countdown has begun on the demise of Kim Jong-il's regime in North Korea, opening up the prospect of a time of dangerous uncertainty.
The commanding general of US forces in South Korea sounded the most ominous warning heard in recent months when he told Congress recently that Washington and Seoul must 'be mindful of the potential for instability in North Korea' if Kim dies or is ousted.
General Walter Sharp said: 'Combined with the country's disastrous centralised economy, dilapidated industrial sector, insufficient agricultural base, malnourished military and populace, and developing nuclear programmes, the possibility of a sudden leadership change in the North could be destabilising and unpredictable.'
Evidence leaking out of secretive Pyongyang and analyses done outside North Korea suggest that a sort of gotterdammerung - a concept drawn from German mythology meaning 'the twilight of the gods' - is under way. The term conjures up a turbulent end to a regime and the collapse of a society into catastrophic violence.
It seems particularly appropriate for the dynasty, since Kim, like his father, Kim Il-sung, has assumed an almost divine status at the centre of a cult. In turn, Kim Jong-il has been grooming his 27-year-old son, Kim Jong-un, to be his successor. That, however, appears to have generated little enthusiasm in Pyongyang beyond propaganda pronouncements.
But why should anyone outside North Korea care about what happens to the regime? At least four consequences come to mind:
