US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton begins her first trip to Asia tomorrow since taking office, with security issues high on the agenda. Lots of pretty diplomatic words can be expected from her and the Chinese, Japanese, Indonesian and South Korean leaders with whom she confers.
Those suave utterances will, however, mask stark underlying realities that affect the security posture of the US in Asia. Those realities may confront Mrs Clinton with difficult questions.
In Beijing, senior officers in the People's Liberation Army have been testing US resolve for at least a dozen years. One commander of US forces after another in this region has felt it prudent to caution the Chinese neither to miscalculate nor to underestimate American determination to remain a power in the Pacific.
Moreover, the government of President Hu Jintao and the Communist Party are beholden to the PLA to stay in power. They have become uneasy because the international economic crisis, China's own faltering economy and repeated outbreaks of civil unrest have brought into question their mandate to hold office.
Mrs Clinton has indicated she plans to take a firm line with the Chinese. In written answers during her confirmation hearings, she said: 'This is not a one-way effort. Much of what we will do depends on the choices China makes about its future at home and abroad.'
The Japanese government is even weaker, having had three leaders since prime minister Junichiro Koizumi stepped down in 2006. The approval rating of the incumbent, Taro Aso, hovers around 20 per cent and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party may be voted out within this year.
That has almost paralysed Japan's ability to respond to American appeals that Tokyo play a greater role in regional security. For their part, Japanese officials say they are worried about US President Barack Obama's commitment to Japan and are concerned that he will bypass Japan in favour of better ties with China.
