I guess I just don't get it. Why are the democratic camp and the foreign media so negative about the National People's Congress Standing Committee's decision to reject universal suffrage for 2012 but allow it for 2017? Why are the democrats mobilising for more protest marches rather than celebrating their victory? On Saturday, the world's largest authoritarian government announced it was going to allow the equivalent of a provincial government to directly elect its governor.
To me, that is a great victory for democracy, not just in Hong Kong but for democratic forces around the world. Sure, the glass may be only half full, but even that is significantly more full than it was before the announcement.
China's leaders are cautious, and always want to control political developments. The Basic Law says clearly that orderly progress is the only route to democracy. So why would anyone expect the central government to allow a democratic transition that was not at a measured pace? Why has the democratic camp responded so negatively, and why do I differ from them?
Their great weakness is their inability to meet officials on the other side of the border, hence their lack of any understanding of how mainland officials see Hong Kong.
In truth, those authorities remain deeply suspicious about the city's voters. Rightly or wrongly - and in my view quite wrongly - they believe that if direct elections for the chief executive were held under universal suffrage only 10 years after the handover, Hongkongers might elect a candidate who would oppose many of Beijing's interests in this city.
While I see no political forces in Hong Kong advocating separatism from the mainland, Beijing leaders do not always see it that way. In their eyes, because Hong Kong's colonial era ended only 10 years ago, many public perceptions are still deeply influenced by 150 years of British tutelage.
But by 2017, Hong Kong will have been part of China for 20 years and, in Beijing's eyes, another decade could make a big difference. In 10 years, Hongkongers may feel more integrated into the people's republic. They will probably feel more patriotic, emphasising their own Chineseness over their sense of being Hongkongers. All of which means that the candidates they support in 2017 will probably share many common interests with, and be more reliable to, Beijing.
