More than 60pc of cadres expected to resign at congress
The Communist Party's leadership is likely to see a major generational reshuffle with more than 60 per cent of members likely to step down during its 17th congress in Beijing this autumn, according to a leading scholar of elite Chinese politics.
'There will be large-scale changes in the top leadership with a landslide takeover by younger leaders,' Li Cheng, a professor at Hamilton College and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told a conference at the Woodrow Wilson Centre on Wednesday.
Professor Li, commenting at a forum on the Chinese Communist Party, believed many officials in their 50s, commonly referred to as the fifth generation of Chinese leaders, were likely to gain powerful positions throughout the party hierarchy, including its Standing Committee, at the congress, which is held every five years.
Professor Li's assessment, which was made ahead of the ministerial appointments to be announced today at a session of the National People's Congress's Standing Committee, is based on the turnover rates of previous party congresses and the average ages of leaders.
He pointed out that 2002's 16th Party Congress saw a turnover rate of 61 per cent in party positions and that the average ages of members of the Standing Committee, Politburo, and Secretariat of the 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party were now 67, 66, and 65, respectively. As a result of their advanced age, many are expected to retire.
Although President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will serve another five-year term in the Politburo, Professor Li surmised that at least four members of the Standing Committee - Luo Gan , 72, Huang Ju, 69, Wu Guanzheng, 69, and Jia Qinglin, 67 - would step down.
