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Bankers warn of dangers in repegging yuan

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Pegging the yuan to a basket of trade-weighted currencies will give the mainland a more flexible currency regime but not solve the imbalance in Sino-US trade, investment bankers at the Fortune Global Forum said yesterday.

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Some also voiced concern that more flexibility would be accompanied by volatility.

Stuart Gulliver, chief executive of corporate investment banking and markets at HSBC, said the trade-weighted currency regime would bring greater flexibility.

The weightings did not need to be publicised, as with the Singapore dollar, which used to be pegged to an undisclosed trade-weighted basket.

Goldman Sachs Group vice-chairman Kenneth Courtis said a 5 to 10 per cent appreciation of the yuan would be appropriate.

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But the danger of loosening the yuan's peg to the US dollar lay in market expectations of a further upward adjustment, Mr Gulliver said, which would, by itself, create more volatility.

The lack of a hedging mechanism for the yuan was a problem faced by foreign investors, who were not in the speculative business, said Jack Rodman, a partner at accounting firm Ernst & Young.

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