The delegation of senior United States senators touring China last week was the highest-level congressional visit in seven years, underscoring a steadily maturing partnership and the increasing importance that US leaders are placing on the China relationship.
Despite a broad agenda and growing mutual interests, the highly politicised climate in Beijing, Washington and Taipei is driving the issue of Taiwan's status to the top of the agenda. Leaders in Beijing stressed to members of the delegation that the US is encouraging Taiwan's leaders to push for independence, and that they must carefully consider the consequences of US policies. The intensity of the level of discussion, which also includes regular phone calls from Beijing to Washington, is reminiscent of the fervent discourse that surrounded Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to the US in December.
Beijing's frustration is apparent, as its established Taiwan policy of economic appeal and military deterrence, the so-called 'push-pull' approach, is proving unsuccessful. The ongoing transition of power between the third and fourth generation of leaders is apparently promoting a conservative 'no compromise' atmosphere in Beijing. With no new innovative policies, Beijing becomes more reliant on Washington to pressure Taiwan to refrain from making moves leading towards independence.
Unfortunately, there is a perception gap between Beijing and Washington about adopting appropriate policies that will potentially lead to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. Beijing feels that the US is not reciprocating its support for core US interests, including the North Korean nuclear challenge and the war on terror. However, there is a sense in the US that Beijing does not fully appreciate the Bush administration's efforts to reign in Taiwan's independence efforts.
Beijing particularly does not appreciate the political costs to President George W. Bush at home in an election year, where his policies are quietly opposed by a significant portion of his own Republican Party. It chooses instead to focus on the issue of continued US arms sales as evidence that Washington is contributing to the problem, rather than examining the current policies and considering new ones that might have a more positive influence on Taiwan's leaders. The leader of the US Senate delegation, Ted Stevens, and his colleague, Bill Frist, will now consider the messages that they have received, the future of the 'one-China' policy and the complex dynamic between Beijing, Washington and Taipei. Without careful management of the Taiwan issue, the US now risks alienating both Beijing and an increasingly independent-minded Taiwan. If trends continue without intervention, the rhetoric between Beijing and Taiwan could develop into a crisis. However, with the US presidential election in November, the focus of politicians will be on domestic issues, the rebuilding of Iraq and the global war on terror.
Considerations surrounding the pending arms sales to Taiwan are as likely to focus on the jobs that they will create in key 'battleground states' as they will on the ramifications for peace and stability in the strait. Likewise, in the run-up to the December Legislative Yuan election in Taiwan, politicians will be communicating their visions for Taiwan's future, caring more about their message's resonance in their districts, rather than Beijing.
