Quiet diplomacy has long received short shrift from China when addressing human rights issues. The case of Chen Guangcheng, however, marks a significantly more sophisticated approach to its negotiations with the US.
If both sides maintain their composure, Chen and his family will soon be allowed to leave for the US, a striking reflection of how the two countries' diplomatic relationship has progressed to where they can focus on shared interests and avoid differences that appear certain to put them on a collision course.
When Chen left the US embassy for a Beijing hospital, the Obama administration came under heavy fire for 'abandoning' the legal rights activist to what is in effect Chinese custody. Republican challenger Mitt Romney spoke of a 'day of shame'; a host of US foreign policy analysts appeared in the mainstream media to lament an American betrayal and a failure of diplomacy. I beg to differ.
It is still early days, but the signs are that, this time, behind-the-scenes diplomacy is set to deliver an outcome that is acceptable to both sides.
Prior to Chen leaving the US embassy, a deal was undoubtedly done between the US and Chinese authorities. We have been told this involved Chen and his family being relocated from their home village and Chen being allowed to study in one of seven designated Chinese law schools. We also know that Chen was told that if he did not accept this and leave the US embassy, his family would be sent back to their home village, with all that this would entail.
This deal was not workable. Unless specifically instructed to do so by Beijing, no law school or local authority in China would welcome Chen. Protecting him from local harassment while keeping him quiet over the long term are contradictory requirements for the Communist Party. It is neither a realistic nor sustainable option.
Keeping Chen in China to punish him for causing considerable embarrassment through a daring dash to a foreign embassy may well conform to Beijing's typical treatment of dissidents. But in a turbulent year of political succession already clouded by the Bo Xilai scandal, it is not in China's interests to come under further pressure from Washington over an issue that could easily escalate into a US presidential election point-scorer.
