After ‘really shocking’ LDP losses in Japan’s special elections, can Fumio Kishida survive as PM?

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered heavy defeats in weekend by-elections, signalling deep public discontent with Kishida’s leadership
The prime minister now faces mounting pressure amid calls for him to resign immediately – and a looming LDP presidency vote later this year

Japan

Julian Ryall

Published: 1:30pm, 30 Apr 2024

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A disastrous showing by Japan’s ruling party in three special elections at the weekend has reignited doubts over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s tenuous grip on power, with the country’s leader expected to need a political miracle to remain in office.

Observers say the elections results were a resounding demonstration of how little faith the Japanese people have in their leaders, after a tumultuous year of scandals for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), including revelations about its links to the controversial Unification Church and ongoing fallout from the extensive slush-funds scandal.

Calls grow for Japan’s Kishida to fire minister over Unification Church ties

Kishida, the current LDP president, may not have been directly implicated in the misappropriation of funds, but his inability to get the party in order has given voters the distinct impression that he is weak. With an election for the party’s presidency set for September, analysts believe his rivals may begin to circle.

“He is in a very tough situation, and he is going to find it difficult to hang on,” said Hiromi Murakami, a political-science professor at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

“The election result in Shimane prefecture was really shocking because that is meant to be one of the LDP’s heartlands,” she told This Week In Asia. “If the party cannot keep those sorts of seats, then you have to ask how he is going to turn this around.”

However, the party was more confident about retaining Shimane’s No. 1 district, a long-standing conservative bastion, where the special election was triggered by the death of Hiroyuki Hosoda, the former speaker of the lower house.

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Japanese PM Kishida orders investigation into Unification Church as his approval ratings plummet

Unfortunately for the LDP, Hosoda was under the microscope for failing to give clear answers about his links to the Unification Church, and his faction within the party has benefited the most from the slush-fund scandal.

With the ruling party deeply unpopular, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan took advantage and won all three seats. It then immediately demanded that the LDP call a general election on the grounds that it is impossible for it to bring about the political reforms that the nation requires.

Even more worrying for Kishida are the exit polls conducted by the Jiji Press news agency indicating 40 per cent of voters want him to step down immediately.

“It’s pretty clear that the public is very angry about these scandals, but also Kishida’s inability to decisively solve the party’s problems,” Murakami said, pointing out that while there had been some resignations from the party, other politicians caught up in the scandal had not been held accountable.

“Kishida’s public support rate is around 30 per cent now, and he is just being dragged down by everything that is happening, so it is up to him to do something if he wants to turn it around,” she said.

Kishida (centre) delivers a statement to parliament last month. Exit polls over the weekend indicated 40 per cent of voters want him to step down immediately. Photo: AFP

Kishida does not have to call a general election until next year, but he will have to navigate the LDP presidency vote in the autumn. Potential challengers are currently keeping a low profile as they do not wish to be associated with the problems plaguing the party but, as September nears, they are likely to become increasingly visible.

Murakami explained that the ultimate goal would be for a potential successor to position themselves as a reformer intent on eliminating misconduct within the party. A snap general election could then be called to leverage any increase in support for this new leadership approach.

Kishida is certainly in deep trouble, but a challenge in September is by no means inevitable, according to Toshimitsu Shigemura, a politics professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

Kishida’s best hope is that he is able to pull a political surprise – a rabbit out of the hat, if you like

Toshimitsu Shigemura, politics professor

“I think it’s possible that he may survive because I believe he wants to remain in power but, more importantly, I do not believe that anyone else in the party wants the position at the moment,” he said.

“Things are so bad with the party that whoever comes in next will have a difficult time fixing the problems … Kishida’s best hope is that he is able to pull a political surprise – a rabbit out of the hat, if you like – that is widely supported,” he added.

“If that is not possible, then he has to hope that in six months’ time people have mostly forgotten about all the scandals.”

There are signs that Kishida has been looking for a political victory – he travelled to Washington to address the US Congress earlier this month, and has reportedly authorised behind-the-scenes negotiations with North Korea to bring home Japanese abductees – but none of it appears to be swaying public opinion much.

Kishida among most unpopular Japanese prime ministers ever, polls show

Another tactic he may also attempt is forming a political alliance with Nippon Ishin No Kai, a conservative party from Osaka that has gained increasing political influence lately. However, this move would likely antagonise the LDP’s current electoral partner, the Buddhist-backed Komeito, and could trigger a rift within that alliance.

Yet the LDP looks likely to cling onto power regardless, Shigemura said, as even if it loses 50 seats in the next general election, a firm alliance with either Komeito or Ishin No Kai would almost certainly be enough for it to retain control.