How the US is hustling China relations towards another cold war

While maintaining diplomacy and setting up guard rails, Washington is also painting an ‘axis of evil’ narrative and courting allies to isolate Beijing on every front

Josef Gregory Mahoney

Published: 7:30pm, 2 May 2024

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President Xi Jinping has characterised America’s strategy towards China as containment, encirclement, suppression and a technological blockade, producing “unprecedented severe challenges” that aim to forestall China’s post-pandemic recovery and kneecap its modernisation and rejuvenation, undermining peaceful regional development.

These concerns were alluded to in a recent call with President Joe Biden – ahead of visits by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken – when Xi referred to growing “negative factors” in the relationship. More dramatically, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, has warned against a “return to a downward spiral”.

While China-US ties are being described as being “more stable” (Yellen) or “beginning to stabilise” (Wang), this is only when set against last year’s instability. This includes US provocations over Taiwan, more anti-China rules and legislation, cancelled official visits, increased military encounters in the South China Sea, and a brouhaha over an errant Chinese weather balloon.

Indeed, the balloon incident was a nadir. The US insisted it was a spy balloon and ordered it shot down; Nato began expanding its remit to include China as chief Jens Stoltenberg asserted the balloon incident confirmed China as a risk to Europe. The Pentagon later conceded the balloon did not collect any intelligence but the damage was done.

In a meeting last November, Xi and Biden committed to more high-level meetings and communication, including between their militaries. Described as both a detente and a delusion of a detente, the summit nevertheless encouraged “guard rails” to improve stability.

But many also see these developments as aiming to prevent unintended clashes that could spiral out of control, particularly during a difficult presidential election year in the US that could herald even more instability if Donald Trump returned to power, all while Washington rushes to build and deploy its strategy in the region and globally.

In short, however stabilising, these guard rails seem to have little to do with principles, respecting “red lines” or improving relations. Rather, they are being used by the US to manage a steady erosion of ties and position itself to dominate future conflicts.

As shown last year, the price for not talking is simply too high. Both sides have an interest in maintaining the illusion of stability.

For the past half decade, Chinese state media have criticised US policies as decoupling, warmongering, hegemony-seeking, imperialist and dangerous meddling. While Biden claims there’s no effort to contain China, the evidence indicates otherwise and Biden’s ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, is explicit: the US seeks to isolate China in Asia and beyond.

Biden himself has played word games with the one-China policy and undermined US strategic ambiguity. He’s also organised, armed and steadily expanded alliances like Aukus (Australia, Britain and the US), deployed US special forces in Taiwan, established new marine expeditionary forces in Japan, sold hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Tokyo, expanded US troops in the Philippines, held nuclear-powered submarine patrols in East Asia, sold nuclear-powered subs to Australia to counter China, and expanded airbases in northern Australia to host nuclear-capable bombers.

15:04

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He’s promised “ironclad” security guarantees for Japan and the Philippines after meeting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr – the same word used to describe US support for Israel and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, in a move reminiscent of its old “axis of evil” narrative, Washington has approved funds to defend Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan in a US$95 billion foreign aid bill that includes provisions against Iran, Russia and China, while simultaneously trying to make China somehow responsible for the growing conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, as seen during Blinken’s recent visit.

02:24

China’s Xi urges US to be a partner, not rival, for ‘mutual success’ in meeting with Blinken

Throwing more fuel on the fire, Blinken told CNN at the close of his China visit that the US has seen evidence of Chinese attempts to influence the presidential election. Such espionage claims were also used to justify the TikTok sale-or-ban bill that Biden signed into law on the day Blinken arrived in China.

Ahead of Blinken’s trip, Yellen’s visit foreshadowed more tariffs while hyping up fears of Chinese overcapacity flooding US and global markets with products including electric vehicles, which US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has described as security risks, saying they can be used to spy on Americans and US infrastructure, and perhaps even used in sabotage.

Everything Chinese is a national security threat to the United States

Yellen is no stranger to the cold war hustle: last year, she was in Africa hyping up fears of a Chinese debt trap, to the delight of anti-China hawks that have long derided the Belt and Road Initiative as a tactic of Chinese imperialism.

These claims have been debunked, the Belt and Road Initiative is driving global development with win-win solutions and the world is not at risk from Chinese overcapacity, especially as global demand has returned. But Washington persists in justifying new protectionism and tech-decoupling policies. This includes the misnamed “high fence, small yard” policy, which actually tries to create overcapacity by pushing down global demand for Chinese products.

03:10

US submarine strikes unknown underwater object in disputed South China Sea

We have not discussed here the US nuclear missile submarines stationed under the Arctic ice or US sub operations in the South China Sea or near Japan that sparked China’s defensive reactions, which the US has characterised in turn as the original provocations.

There are too many fronts to list, some hidden, others open, but a grand strategy is more clearly in view. With positive talk much thinner than the negative, we seem to be observing a disintegration of ties and the return of a cold war or worse.

Josef Gregory Mahoney is professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University, and a senior research fellow with the Institute for the Development of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics at Southeast University